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Is the Liberal Party dead?
Peter C. Newman, the iconic chronicler of Canadian public life, says the Liberal Party is dead in the cold, cold ground. In the wake of the party's worst electoral defeat in history, Mr. Newman has laid out its path to ruination in his new book, When the Gods Changed: The Death of Liberal Canada. Michael Valpy recently interviewed Mr. Newman for The Globe and Mail, about his new book and his observations on the fate of the Liberal Party. Mr. Newman and Mr. Valpy answered readers' questions.
- Hello and thanks for joining us for today's discussion. Peter C. Newman and Michael Valpy are now joining us, so please feel free to send in your questions. I'd like to start the discussion with a question of my own for Mr. Newman: You call your new book an obituary for the Liberal Party -- could you explain why you think the party won't recover from its current troubles? (Have a look at Michael Valpy's recent article about Peter C. Newman's take on the Liberal Party.)
- This question is echoed in the following question from Ryan from BTown:
- Hello gentlemen and Ms. Adams! Thank you for taking the time to read my comment. The Liberals have been down this path before, when Diefenbaker won his majority in 1958 and then when Mulroney was his first majority in '84. Both times they were reduced to a rump of seats, but they were able to come back. What makes you think they won't be able to 100% revive themselves? Especially since Jack Layton is no longer leading the NDP, the situation is somewhat more favourable for the Liberals to regain their footing in the political world. Thank you.
- Any political party that wishes to either retain or grasp office needs four basic ingredients:
1. Money with which to fight the campaign - which has been mottled by the Conservative bill to do away with federal electoral subsidies 2. A power base from which to operate - and the Liberals have lost all past such fortresses including Quebec, Toronto, the Maritimes and Liberal Ontario 3. A past record that promises success - their past record of the last four elections has reduced Liberal standing from 135 seats to 34; that's a deadly legacy. 4. The prospect of being able to negotiate a coalition with an ideologically compatible political party - an eventuality that simply does not exist. - Mr. Valpy, could you share your thoughts on this?
- While the Grits' prospects look decidely bleak, who else could fill the vacuum on the centre-left? The day will come when voters want to turf the Tories; it's hard to imagine Canadians electing a government as far from the centre as the NDP.
- Mr. Newman will give you his analysis. I don't completely agree with him but I don't have his wisdom. In 1957 and 1958, the Liberals had the genius of the Rainmaker, the late Keith Davey. In the Mulroney years, Mr. Mulroney self-destructed. Now there's no Rainmaker and no obvious evidence of forthcoming self-destruction. But there is a very smart Bob Rae
- To add: at both times Ryan from BTown lists, the Liberal party were operating on a two-party system. It was much easier to go from opposition to power than it is now, when they are stuck in third place, which is the equivalent of a political purgatory.
- Do you agree the decline really escalated when Martin "strategists" took out Sheila Copps, former Deputy PM, whose seat then went to the Socialists?
- The person who says it's hard to imagine Canadians electing a government for far from the centre as the NDP assumes the NDP is always going to be far from the centre. It's not far from the centre now and Jack Layton was taking it closer to the centre.
- Very definitely. This was Paul Martin's advisors at their worst - to jettison a former Deputy PM for no definable reason.
- You're asking if the decline of the Liberals began when the Martin "strategists" took out Sheila Copps? It began long before that (and I agree 100 per cent with Peter Newman): it began when they ran out of ideas and turned on each other; it began when they lost Keith Davey and couldn't replace him; it began when their party machinery rusted to a halt.
- Mr. Newman: the Tories have successfully 'unbranded' themselves from their provincial counterparts (BC Libs, Sask Party, somewhat Wildrose / PC in Alberta) - could the Liberals' failure be in juxtaposition to that?
- I totally agree with Michael Valpy on the point about the NDP. I remember the late Bob Winters' comment during the Liberal Leadership race of '68 when he said, "When someone shows me the centre, that's where I'll stand."
- Michael. You should know that, since you were an NDP federal candidate, a relevant fact here, eh!
- Kyallglennie: do you mean to ask if the Liberals could 'unbrand' themselves?
- I think Bob Rae, in his recent policy statements, is shrewdly targetting the vanishing middle class, which is as centre as you can get.
- What are your thoughts on the outlook of the next Generation of Post Secondary Educated Young Canadians aka people born after 1985 (Given that Canada is approaching one of the highest attainment rates in OECD). Would they be leaning towards the NDP as opposed to the Liberals in the next two federal elections?
- I'm a journalist, Mr. Heard, and I write for The Globe and Mail.
- yes- in Alberta, they have suggested re-naming themselves. my sense from BC was federal Liberals support the BCNDP (and Vision Vancouver municipally). Could they do the same - re-brand to stay alive?
- For the first time I don't entirely agree with Valpy re: his comments on Bob Rae, in that I believe any Rae candidacy would be disastrous. Rae has so much political baggage that an airport carousel couldn't carry it.
- The undecisiveness of Stephane Dion ran it further under the ground(Not saying he's incompetent). But the Liberals are not dead. When you're that far down in the ranks, any victory is significant. The Liberal party is going to attract individuals who want to give it just that
- How much do you think did the eco policies of Dion hurt the Liberal party and do you think they'll be able to win back the voters that drifted to the right because of them?
- Point of order. I never wrote the decline "began" with the axing of Copps; I said it "escalated." Big difference. Actually -- and I was there -- it began when Chretien refused to accept John Turner's convention victory and began conspiring against him.
- Huzaifa: the challenge is not between the Liberals and the NDP. The root problem is that young Canadians are not going to the polls. What I value more than all of the political parties put together is the perpetuation of meaningful democracy.
- kyallglennie: No. Because they then wouldn't be the Liberals.
- As a followup example to my last question, both Ignatieff during the campaign season and Justin Trudeau in the Fall were able to command house fulls(with lineups outside) of a 300+ person room at McMaster University in Hamilton Ontario.
- Frank Graves of EKOS Research says there's data that shows that if only Canadians under 30 voted, there'd be a minority Green Parliament and if only Canadians over 60 voted there'd be a 250-seat Conservative Parliament. I think there's a huge generational values gap in Canada and I agree with Mr. Graves that the generational gulf in Canada is likely the widest in the world and it poses a serious threat to the legitimacy of our democracy. The overwhelming majority of Canadians under age 40 don't vote. But if they voted? They're more likely to vote NDP than Liberal but there's no evidence that that's chipped in stone.
- Steve G: Dion retained a cushion by winning a respectable 77 seats. Now, the Liberals are strictly on life-support and the prognosis is not favourable.
- They hurt him significantly enough to shred the identity of your typical Liberal. However, they WILL be able to win back the people that have been "disappointed" (so to say) because the Liberal ideology vastly differs from any other party. Once a Liberal, Always a Liberal. Its like a pleasurable infection.
- Yes, they get big university audiences, but not big university turnouts on voting days.
- Ray Heard: There is certainly truth in that. Especially when Turner picked his own unorthodox Quebec Lieutenant.
- Final question: Do you agree that Ignatieff masterminds Alf Apps and Ian Davey sold him to upscale Rosedale, but not downmarket Rexdale --nor the Rest of Canada
- Huzaifa: they were able to attract audiences, but you can't argue with the election results. Whatever the leader did or said could not translate into support.
- Peter never fails to dazzle me with his turn of phrase: so much baggage that an airport carousel couldn't carry it. So much Rae baggage to whom? Ontarians maybe. Some grumpy New Democrats of a certain age maybe. But in Quebec? To young Canadians?
- Mr. Apps and Mr. Davey didn't sell him to Rosedale or anywhere else, including his own constituents.
- AS77: the thought of, "Once a Liberal, always a Liberal" is tough to document since the party has lost roughly 800, 000 votes in its last four electoral excursions.
- A long time ago an Ontario MPP said to me "being Liberal means having a heart but paying the bills." That sentiment I think probably reflects the values of many Canadians, and would seem to be the building block for becoming relevant to Canadians again - Cons have no heart, NDP won't pay the bills, the Libs are just right. Do you think that message can be a path to electoral success?
- Ray Heard: That is certainly true. His personal loss in the Etobicoke riding proves it.
- The Liberal Party isn't dead it's merely very illiberal.
- Michael Valpy: Unfortunately Bob Rae's political baggage is not limited to pseudo-NDP policies, but to the age factor. He will be 67 when the next election is called, hardly the youthful crusader that the party will need.
- @Michael Valpy Touche
- About hearts and bill-paying: CCF/NDP governments in the West ran pretty fiscally tight ships. The Trudeau Liberals ran up a huge deficit. Why don't we set the shibboleths aside. We have had communitarian governments in Canada of all stripes: NDP, Liberal, Progressive Conservative. Sometimes they've kept a tight eye on the bank account; sometimes they haven't.
- @mbi It's a valid message but much will depend on who is selling it and whether the national accounts will be large enough to carry a progressive platform.
- Even though Bob Rae's recent speech was well received, it was full of old political platitudes and nothing that could be construed as a platform: until the Liberals can actually demonstrate they stand for something other than power, they will continue in the wilderness IMHO.
