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What does the shift to the West mean for Canada? Census expert took your questions
Jack Jedwab, executive director of the Association for Canadian Studies, will be online at 1 p.m. ET to answer your questions about Canada’s population dynamics
- Welcome to this afternoon’s discussion: what does the 2011 census tell us about Canada? Joining us is Jack Jedwab, executive director of the Association for Canadian Studies, to take your questions.
I’m the community editor for news at The Globe, and I’ll be moderating the chat. All comments and questions will be read, but only selected ones will show up. We’ll try to get through as many as we can in the hour.
We have a comprehensive package around the census, so start with our main story: www.theglobeandmail.com and follow the links. We also have interactive graphics to dive into the data, such as www.theglobeandmail.com and www.theglobeandmail.com
Also worth noting: today’s numbers are from the mandatory short-form census, not the survey that replaced the long-form census. These numbers should be as reliable as any past counts.
- Welcome, Mr. Jedwab. To start, what do you think was the most interesting finding out of the 2011 census?
- The single most important thing is probably the shift in growth to the Western provinces which is ongoing but seems to imply that a slight yet steady shift in the locus of influence away from the East.
- How big is the shift?
- The national growth rate was 5.9% with the Western at about 7% and the East closer to 5%, The percetages may not seem substantial but the the psychology of growth and our collective preoccupation with it is perhaps the most interesting feature of the release today. more on that shorty
- On the global picture, what does it mean for Canada that we’re the fastest-growing G8 country?
- It's normal to target growth as a measure of success. Growth seems to be equated with prosperity and it contributes to a collective psychology that we equate with success. Alberta's growth is above 10% the fastest in the country and we see it as a "hot" area not in the sense of the temperature of course. But looking at the statement in the census report that notes that we have the fastest growing country in the G8 but it also points out which gets less attention that we are the smallest. So this makes us look good and with the right spin is something we can boast in support of our economy when interacting with global partners but in the scheme of things we're not big relative to the rest of the G8 and not to mention China and India
- Right, that's a good point - the rate of growth in the western provinces is higher than Ontario, but Ontario is still a very substantial chunk of Canada's population?
- Correct. The census report mentions that Ontario's census to census growth declined even though Toronto experienced relatively strong growth as did Ottawa and Kingston. Again the psychology of growth and how we understand it as the census report gives the impression is bit stagnant relative to the west yet it remains more than twice the size of Alberta and BC put together. The optics are all so important
- Jack, what do you think this means for Ontario long-term? I'm a young Ontarian contemplating a move west given the weak outlook for Ontario. Do you think Ontario can get it's mojo back, or is this a permanent trend?
- I don't know that Ontario has lost its mojo (the Leafs are doing well). But the West is attracitve owing to the economic fundamentals. That may yet shift. And of course we're thinking in terms of provinces here as opposed to the cities comparing Toronto to Calgary or Ottawa to Edmonton may off a better frame of reference.
- are more people living in cities?
- Yes more are living in the larger cities though I assumed the shift might be greater than it was. The percentage in the census metro areas jumped from about 68 to 69 percent. Census agglomerations (the areas just outside dipped slightly and the more remote areas dropped not only in percentage but also in real numbers. But the big cities continue to the big draw. Thunder Bay and Windsor did not do well and stood out negatively in terms of population change
- We'll have to wrap up early, but we have time for one more question.
- Jack, why does Central Canada think the West owes them something (latest Globe headline). Are they not the same reason that limited the West's resource rights, took their oil and limited how resources could be taxed?
- Well I guess it depends how you look at it. Owes is a strong word. The stroger areas should be prepared to support the weaker ones in the collective interest of stability for the country. I don't know that Ontarians carrying more weight in an earlier period means they are owed or a debt has been built as opposed to thinking in terms of the collective interest of the country going forward
- Thanks for taking our questions today, Mr. Jedwab.
- My pleasure
